How did I do on my 2025 Predictions?
The most important part of making predictions is checking whether they actually happened. You can see the original 2025 post here.
Technology
AI fluency becomes basic requirement.
Grade: A
Searches were extremely consistent in requiring at minimum AI awareness and often even more advanced level AI understanding and application.
Leverage stays with employers but is very split by level. Rising demand for top performers and falling leverage for entry level to average workers.
Grade: B
Entry level hiring dropped 7% YOY and the market was a tough one for most job seekers. Highly in demand talent still received multiple offers but the bar for “highly in demand” was raised effectively indicating lower overall demand.
Counterculture movements towards human first organizations and initiatives.
Grade: B+
This one is still early but the success of “analog” as a status symbol speaks to this appeal. The rush of all marketers to “community” is another example.
Work Culture
Gen Beta is here (on Earth, still babies) and Gen Alpha start getting first jobs.
Grade: A (I guess, this was inevitable so it shouldn’t get full credit)
Premiums for in-person work and events.
Grade: B+
The focus on in-person was there but the “premium” showed up more as demand from employers than reward. Petitions and other attempts to push back failed widely.
More pay per outcome.
Grade: A
Examples abound:
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/the-ai-pricing-and-monetization-playbook
More focus on long term performance at the exec levels:
https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2026/02/04/sp-500-ceo-compensation-trends-2
Side note for 2026 - this trend is going to collide with collective action when it hits more every day workers vs. staying at the c suite.
Rises in purveyor of novelty jobs.
Grade: A
Up 5% YOY but projected at 19% over the next decade (BLS)
Collective action ↑
Grade: B
Membership in unions is relatively flat but strike activity is up. We also continued to see more petitions and bold moves like these on video from Vogue employees.
Taste as the top skill.
Grade: B+
This is still too roughly defined to be universal but was absolutely in the pulse of every search I saw in 2025. A sense of working through ambiguity and earning momentum whether sales, engagement or other outcomes.
Growing divide between high and low performers
Grade: A
Saw it. Felt it. Studies confirmed it.
Declining trust between employees and employers.
Grade: A
See the Vogue video again from above or consider the very real North Korean laptop farms that employers are up against. As such, they’re asking for more cameras on and extending interview processes.
Compliance
Pay transparency sticking around.
Grade: A
No rollbacks and 4 new states (Illinois, Vermont, Minnesota, Massachusetts) added among other municipalities.
Not the old-school “pro-business” administration.
Grade: A
Tariffs were huge. If you loved them they were “pro-business” and if you hated them they were “anti-free trade”.
Collective bargaining rights changed for many Federal workers (the workeres have less now) and co-employer laws changed (good for franchises).
Disclosures for AI in hiring.
Grade: C
Many states are in the process of rolling laws out or have recently (Colorado for example) but widespread clarity isn’t there yet.
Mobley v. Workday, Inc. is a key lawsuit to watch on this topic.
Overall
A few calls are still playing out and will roll into 2026 but the core signals held. For now, I’ll call it a pass with honor roll potential.
